Quantum computing 2026: IBM and Google promise breakthroughs
IBM and Google promise "quantum advantage" by 2026. With the Nighthawk processor's 350 microseconds of coherence and Google's 13,000x speed advantage, we are approaching the critical point for practical quantum computing.
2026 could be the year when quantum computers finally go from laboratory curiosity to practical use. Both IBM and Google have set ambitious goals for the year, and experts believe we are approaching the critical point known as "quantum advantage".
What is quantum advantage?
Quantum advantage (previously called "quantum supremacy") occurs when a quantum computer solves a problem faster, more cheaply or more efficiently than any classical computer can. It is the holy grail for the quantum industry.
IBM says it outright: "We expect to realize the first quantum advantages by the end of 2026."
IBM's Nighthawk: A technological breakthrough
In January 2026, IBM's new Nighthawk processor became available for early user access. The key figures are impressive:
- Median T1 coherence: 350 microseconds—the highest in IBM's fleet
- Two-qubit gates: Up to 5,000 operations
- Roadmap: 7,500 gates by the end of 2026, 10,000 in 2027
Coherence—how long qubits remain in a quantum state—is crucial. The longer the coherence, the more complex the computations that can be carried out before the information "decays".
Google's Willow: 13,000 times faster
Google is not far behind. Their Willow chip recently demonstrated what the company calls "verifiable quantum advantage"—solving a specific problem 13,000 times faster than the world's most powerful supercomputers.
More important than raw speed is Google's progress in error correction. Quantum systems are extremely sensitive to noise, and error correction—using many physical qubits to simulate one reliable "logical" qubit—is the key to practical applications.
Neutral atom technology: The third way
While IBM and Google are betting on superconducting qubits, others are exploring an alternative approach: neutral atoms.
Companies such as Microsoft, Atom Computing and QuEra use lasers to manipulate individual atoms trapped in a vacuum. IEEE Spectrum reports that this technology "is aiming for error correction by 2026."
The advantage? Neutral atoms can be moved around and reconfigured dynamically, which provides flexibility that superconducting systems lack.
China is accelerating
China is not holding back. The country recently announced the completed commercialization of a superconducting quantum control system for 1,000-qubit computers. Fujitsu and RIKEN in Japan are planning a 1,000-qubit machine by 2026.
This is not just a technology race—it is geopolitics. Quantum computers can potentially break today's encryption, which makes quantum security a matter of national security.
Practical applications: What can quantum actually do?
Today's use cases focus on problems where classical computers struggle:
- Molecular simulation: Design of new medicines and materials
- Optimization: Logistics, finance, route planning
- Machine learning: Acceleration of certain AI algorithms
- Cryptography: Both threats (breaking) and solutions (quantum-secure encryption)
IBM emphasizes that quantum will not replace classical computers, but rather function as an "accelerator"—a specialist for specific types of problems.
What does this mean for Norway?
Norwegian research institutions and companies are following developments closely. With strong traditions in physics and computational science, Norway is well positioned to take advantage of quantum technology as it matures.
For businesses, it is now a matter of preparation: Understanding which problems in your own operations could benefit from quantum acceleration, and starting to build expertise.
Sources: IBM Quantum Blog, IEEE Spectrum, Forbes, MIT Technology Review, DigiTimes
