Norges Bank rate decision November 2026: 4.50 or 4.75 per cent – what a quarter-point means for your mortgage

Governor Ida Wolden Bache said it “will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and the Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target within a reasonable time horizon.”

The committee was split on timing. Some members saw a case for waiting for more information, while others wanted to act at once. After thorough discussions, according to the committee’s summary, all five members backed the hike.

Will Norges Bank raise rates on 5 November?

The answer comes at 10:00. The strongest pointer beforehand is the bank’s own forecast. According to Monetary Policy Report 3/2026 (in Norwegian), the rate path was consistent with a hike in September, after which the rate would remain at 4.5 per cent for a while.

Norges Bank has also spelt out what could push rates higher: stronger price pressures from abroad, including higher oil and gas prices and the conflict in the Middle East. Both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve raised rates in September. A faster fall in inflation or a weaker labour market would point the other way.

The figures on the committee’s desk

Statistics Norway’s consumer price index, published on 9 October 2026, shows prices up 3.4 per cent on a year earlier in September, against 3.3 per cent in August. Core inflation (CPI-ATE) held at 3.0 per cent. The target is 2 per cent. October figures arrive on 10 November, after the meeting.

What does a quarter-point mean for a NOK 1 million mortgage?

A quarter of a percentage point is NOK 2,500 a year in interest per million borrowed. Interest is deductible against Norwegian income tax at 22 per cent in 2026, according to the Norwegian Tax Administration, so the net cost is roughly NOK 1,950 a year. In the Troms and Finnmark action zone the deduction is 18.5 per cent.

Our starting point is 5.35 per cent, the average rate on outstanding floating-rate mortgages in September according to Statistics Norway’s interest rate statistics (updated 29 October 2026). Monthly payment per NOK 1 million, 25-year repayment mortgage, excluding fees:

• Down 0.25 (5.10 per cent): NOK 5,904 – NOK 147 less.
• Unchanged (5.35 per cent): NOK 6,052.
• Up 0.25 (5.60 per cent): NOK 6,201 – NOK 149 more.
• Up 0.50 (5.85 per cent): NOK 6,352 – NOK 300 more.

Over 30 years the payment rises from NOK 5,584 to NOK 5,741, an extra NOK 157 a month. On a NOK 3 million loan over 25 years, a quarter-point adds about NOK 450 a month.

These figures assume your bank passes on the full change, which not all banks do, and each bank chooses its own timing. Fixed-rate loans are unaffected until the fixed period ends. The same rule of thumb – NOK 2,500 a year per million per quarter-point – applies if you are borrowing for a big purchase such as an electric car before the VAT threshold halves in 2027.

Why hasn’t the September hike shown up yet?

The average rate on outstanding mortgages was unchanged at 5.31 per cent in September. Statistics Norway notes that it takes time for banks to change their rates. Combined with the notice period, our calculation is that the September hike can reach existing floating-rate loans around late November at the earliest.

How much notice must a Norwegian bank give?

Section 3-13 of the Financial Contracts Act states that changes to the customer’s detriment can take effect no earlier than two months after the customer has been notified, and that a proposed rate change must be justified. The text is available on Lovdata (in Norwegian). The old six-week rule no longer applies.

If a bank announces a hike after today’s meeting, it can therefore apply to existing loans around the turn of the year at the earliest. New loans can be repriced immediately. Because the law only restricts changes that harm the customer, a rate cut can be passed on faster. On a repayment mortgage the term usually stays the same, so it is the monthly payment that changes.

Mortgage costs come on top of other fixed bills this winter, such as electricity – see our analysis of whether Norgespris at 45 øre is worth it in 2027.

What happens next?

Today’s meeting is a rate decision only. The next is on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 10:00, together with a new Monetary Policy Report and an updated rate path, according to Norges Bank’s meeting calendar. Meetings follow on 21 January and 18 March 2027.

In the September forecast, the policy rate starts to fall gradually from late 2027 and ends just below 3.5 per cent by the end of the forecast horizon. Norges Bank expects the average mortgage rate to rise from 5.2 per cent in the third quarter to 5.6 per cent by the end of 2027, before easing to just under 5 per cent in 2029. More calculations are in our Business section.

This article will be updated with the decision after 10:00.

Frequently asked questions

What is Norway’s interest rate now?

Norges Bank’s policy rate is 4.50 per cent, in effect since 25 September 2026. It may change at today’s 10:00 announcement.

Will Norway raise interest rates in November 2026?

That is not known until 10:00 on 5 November. The September rate path pointed to an unchanged rate for a while, but the committee has said it is ready to hike again if the inflation outlook warrants it.

How much more does a quarter-point cost per NOK 1 million?

About NOK 149 a month on a 25-year repayment mortgage, or NOK 157 over 30 years. Annual interest rises by NOK 2,500 before tax, roughly NOK 1,950 after the deduction.

When is Norges Bank’s next interest rate decision?

Thursday 17 December 2026 at 10:00, alongside Monetary Policy Report 4/2026 and a new rate path.