Norway CPI October 2026 at 08:00: how to read the inflation figure – and what it means for 17 December

CPI-ATE is the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products – electricity including grid tariffs, heating fuels, district heating and petrol and diesel. SSB calls it “a measurement of the underlying growth in consumer prices”. Because power and pump prices can swing wildly from month to month, it is the gauge Norges Bank watches most closely.

What happened in September?

Statistics Norway reported on 9 October 2026 that consumer prices were 3.4 per cent higher than a year earlier, and up 0.5 per cent on the month. CPI-ATE held at 3.0 per cent for a second month running. Services rose 3.8 per cent, goods 3.0 per cent.

Fuel did most of the lifting. SSB says (in Norwegian) fuel prices jumped 27.7 per cent between August and September – the largest monthly change ever recorded for the group – after temporary cuts in fuel duties ended on 1 September. Electricity pulled the other way, rising just 0.1 per cent on the month against 3.4 per cent a year earlier.

Tax changes are exactly why SSB publishes tax-adjusted indices, and more arrive at New Year, including the halved VAT threshold for electric cars in 2027.

Which number should you compare at 08:00?

Hold the release up against Norges Bank’s own projections. In Monetary Policy Report 3/2026 the central bank pencilled in 3.8 per cent for CPI and 2.7 per cent for CPI-ATE in October. In September it missed by 0.1 percentage point each way: headline came in lower, core higher.

Nettsak has worked out what different month-on-month moves would mean, using SSB’s index levels in StatBank table 14704. The indices are rounded, so treat the results as approximate (±0.1 point):

• CPI flat on the month: twelve-month rate of about 3.3 per cent.
• CPI up 0.5 per cent: about 3.8 per cent – Norges Bank’s projection.
• CPI-ATE up 0.3 per cent: about 2.7 per cent – Norges Bank’s projection.
• CPI-ATE up 0.6 per cent: about 3.0 per cent – unchanged from September.
• CPI-ATE up 0.8 per cent: about 3.2 per cent.

A CPI-ATE figure clearly above 2.7 per cent means underlying inflation has run hotter than the bank assumed in September. A figure at or below it is in line with, or softer than, the forecast.

Why could October’s figure jump?

Base effects. The twelve-month rate compares this October with last October, so what happened a year ago matters as much as what happens now. As SSB puts it, if prices fall from one month to the next but fell further at the same point last year, the annual rate goes up.

October 2025 was unusual. SSB’s table 14700 shows the CPI rose only 0.1 per cent between September and October 2025, while electricity and fuels fell 7.7 per cent – the month Norway’s fixed-price electricity scheme, Norgespris, entered the index. CPI-ATE, meanwhile, rose 0.6 per cent. A handy rule of thumb: new annual rate ≈ September’s rate + this year’s monthly change − last year’s monthly change.

Electricity and fuels carry a weight of 36.9 per mille in the 2026 basket. SSB section head Espen Kristiansen said on 9 October that as more households join Norgespris, swings in market power prices will feed through less to their bills. Read more on what Norgespris costs from 2027 and on reservoir levels and winter power prices.

Does higher inflation mean a rate rise?

Not automatically. Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5 per cent on 5 November, unanimously. Governor Ida Wolden Bache said: “Inflation is too high. It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon.”

The committee weighs more than one number. It noted that prices of domestically produced goods and services had risen faster than projected, that higher energy prices push inflation up, that a stronger krone pulls it down, and that registered unemployment was 2.0 per cent in October. Wolden Bache said the bank was “particularly vigilant to signs of continued elevated price pressures”. As of 4 November, markets were pricing in a rate rise by the end of the first half of 2027 – not necessarily in December.

For borrowers, each quarter-point rise adds roughly NOK 150 a month per million kroner on a 25-year repayment mortgage. We ran the numbers in our preview of the 5 November decision.

What happens next?

Norges Bank announces its decision and publishes Monetary Policy Report 4/2026 on Thursday 17 December at 10:00, with fresh forecasts. One more CPI release lands first: SSB publishes on the 10th of each month, so November’s figure is due on 10 December. After that, the next meeting is on 21 January 2027.

If rates do rise, Norwegian banks must give customers two months’ notice before raising the rate on existing loans, under section 3-13 of the Financial Contracts Act. A rise on 17 December would therefore reach floating-rate mortgages around mid-February 2027 at the earliest.

Frequently asked questions

When is Norway’s October 2026 CPI published?

Statistics Norway releases it on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 08:00 CET.

What was Norway’s inflation rate before the October release?

In September 2026 the CPI rose 3.4 per cent and CPI-ATE 3.0 per cent from a year earlier, according to SSB.

What is the difference between CPI and CPI-ATE?

The CPI covers all consumer prices. CPI-ATE strips out tax changes and energy – electricity, grid tariffs, heating fuels and motor fuel – to show underlying inflation.

When is the next Norges Bank rate decision?

Thursday 17 December 2026 at 10:00, alongside Monetary Policy Report 4/2026. A CPI-ATE reading well above 2.7 per cent raises the odds of a hike, but is not decisive on its own.